Where is genuinely warm in winter? November to March, month by month

Winter sun is one of the most requested trips we plan, and one of the most misunderstood. The word "sunny" hides a lot. A place can have clear skies and still be too cool to swim, and a tropical island can be hot and humid while sitting in its rainiest month.

So this guide is about warmth you can feel. We have used the long-term climate averages that national weather services publish through the World Meteorological Organization, and set them against realistic flight times from London. The figures are average daily highs. Real days vary, but averages are the honest place to start.

The short answer

• Under five hours, reliably mild: the Canary Islands. Low twenties all winter.
• Five to seven hours, warm by day: the Red Sea coast of Egypt, Dubai and Oman. Warmest at the start and end of winter.
• Eight to ten hours, properly hot: the Caribbean, with Barbados and Antigua the easiest to reach direct.
• Ten to 12 hours, hot and tropical: the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Cape Town in South Africa, each with its own best months.

The near options: what "mild" really means

Canary Islands

About four and a half hours direct from London to Tenerife. The long-term averages for Santa Cruz de Tenerife put the daily high at about 24°C in November, falling to about 21°C in January and February. Rainfall is low throughout.

That is T-shirt weather by day and a jumper after dark. The Atlantic is cool for swimming in midwinter, so a heated pool helps. The Canaries are the best answer for a short break, or for anyone who does not want a long flight, but they are mild rather than hot.

Madeira and Morocco

Both come up often, and both are honest four-hour options with a caveat. Funchal's averages sit around 19 to 20°C from December to March, with more rain than the Canaries. Marrakech reaches about 19 to 21°C by day in January and February, but average lows fall to around 6 to 8°C. Lovely for walking, gardens and food. Not for lying by a pool.

The Red Sea

About five and a half hours direct from London to Hurghada. The Red Sea coast of Egypt is dry all winter, with almost no rain in the averages. Highs at Hurghada run from about 27°C in November to about 22°C in January, and back up to about 25°C by March. Sharm el-Sheikh is very similar.

The Red Sea is best at the start and end of winter. In January it is pleasant rather than hot, and the wind can make it feel cooler still. The diving and snorkelling are good all season.

Dubai and Oman

About seven hours direct from London to Dubai, and a similar time to Muscat. The Gulf is where winter sun starts to feel like summer. Dubai averages about 30°C in November, 26°C in December, 24°C in January and February, and back to about 28°C in March. Muscat is very similar, and a degree or so warmer in midwinter.

November and March are the sweet spots, hot enough for the beach all day. December to February is perfect for walking in the old towns and the desert, and still warm enough to swim. Rain is infrequent, with only a few wet days a month even in February and March.

The long-haul options: properly hot

The Caribbean

About nine hours direct from London to Barbados, and a little longer to Antigua. The Caribbean is consistently hot through winter, with highs of 28 to 29°C at St John's, Antigua, from December to March.

What changes is rain. November is still wet in the averages, and the islands dry out through December into a clear, breezy January to March. Christmas and New Year are the busiest and most expensive weeks of the year. For the same weather with more space, look at the second half of January or early March.

The Maldives

About ten and a half hours direct from London to Malé. The Maldives is hot all year, around 30 to 31°C, so the question is rain. The averages for Malé show November and December as wet months, with January much drier and February the driest of the year. March is usually lovely too.

If you have a choice, go from mid-January to March. December still works, with sunny spells between showers, but you are more likely to lose an afternoon or two.

Sri Lanka

About ten and three-quarter hours direct from London to Colombo. Sri Lanka's west and south coasts come into season in winter as the southwest monsoon rains fade. The averages for Colombo and Galle show January and February as the driest months, with highs around 29 to 31°C. Sri Lanka's tourism board also rates the hill country and the ancient cities highly in the drier weeks of March and April.

Our guide to Sri Lanka's two monsoons covers which coast to choose in which month.

Mauritius

About 12 hours direct from London. Mauritius runs against the pattern. It is warm all winter, around 30 to 31°C at Port Louis, but November is one of its driest months while January and February are among the wettest. This is the southern hemisphere's summer, when the island is hot, humid and at its wettest.

That makes Mauritius a strong choice for November and early December, and a less certain one from January.

Cape Town

About 11 and a half hours direct from London, with only a small time difference. Cape Town is dry in its summer, with highs of about 24°C in November rising to about 26°C in January and February. It is not tropical heat, and the Atlantic is cold, but the light, the food and the wine country make it one of the best winter trips there is. It also pairs easily with a safari.

Thailand

There is no single short answer for Thailand from London, because flights involve a longer journey and often a connection. But the Andaman coast is worth knowing about: Phuket's averages show rainfall falling steeply from November, with January and February the driest months and highs of 32 to 33°C.

Month by month

November

The Gulf and the Red Sea are at their warmest of the winter. Mauritius is dry and warm. The Caribbean and the Maldives are still in their wetter season, and Sri Lanka's southwest coast is not yet settled.

Best bets: Dubai, Oman, the Red Sea, Mauritius.

December

The Caribbean dries out through the month, and Christmas weeks book up early. Cape Town is into its summer. The Gulf is warm rather than hot. The Maldives and Sri Lanka improve as the month goes on.

Best bets: Cape Town, Mauritius early in the month, the Caribbean after the first week, Dubai.

January

The coolest month across the northern hemisphere options. The Canaries and the Red Sea are mild. The long-haul destinations come into their own: the Caribbean, the Maldives, Sri Lanka's south coast and Cape Town are all in season.

Best bets: the Maldives from mid-month, Sri Lanka, Barbados, Antigua, Cape Town.

February

Often the best month of the whole winter for the tropics. The Maldives is at its driest. The Caribbean is clear and breezy. February half-term puts pressure on availability, so book early if you are travelling with children.

Best bets: the Maldives, the Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Cape Town.

March

The Gulf and the Red Sea warm up again, so they return to the list. The Caribbean and the Maldives remain excellent. Easter can fall in March or April, and it is busy when it does.

Best bets: Dubai, Oman, the Maldives, the Caribbean.

How we would choose

Start with the time you have. For a week or less, stay within seven hours, choose the Gulf or the Red Sea in November or March, and choose the Canaries if the flight time matters more than the heat.

For ten nights or more, go long-haul and let the month decide: Mauritius in November, the Caribbean or Cape Town at Christmas, the Maldives or Sri Lanka in the new year.

And be honest about what you want. If you want to swim in warm sea and lie in the sun in January, only the long-haul options will reliably do it. Browse our beach escapes to see where we would send you.